Bowring: The global imbalance - International Herald Tribune: "Some of the gains from lower commodity import prices for China (and other exporters of manufactured goods) are nothing to worry about. The oil exporters of the Gulf, Norway and elsewhere do not need more income that they cannot spend. But the simultaneous contraction of deficits in a developed country, particularly the U.S., with the rise in the deficits of the developing world will put new strains on the global system.
The U.S. can run a deficit simply by printing more dollars. The likes of India, Brazil South Africa and Indonesia cannot. They will have to borrow to sustain economic growth when their export prices fall. With private sector finance now hard to find, and given the limited resources of multilateral institutions like the World Bank, the dangers of a downhill snowball effect are clear"
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
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